IN-07, MA-05–a couple of questions

1.  MA-05, has there been any recent polling, public or private?  It would be great to get a poll result just before the election.

2. IN-07, has Julia Carson got a primary opponent yet?  I don’t like primary challenges
as a rule, as most of them are destructive.  But one here might be for the best.

Charlie Cook has downgraded IN-07 to Likely Democratic, based on Carson’s likely decision to seek reelection.  He also seems to think Dem turnout will be down to dissatisfaction with Congress’ inability to end the Iraq war.

19 thoughts on “IN-07, MA-05–a couple of questions”

  1. I’ve heard rumors–but seen no numbers–from both camps that Tsongas is under 50 and leading by only single digits.

  2. prior to the special election for tx-23 back in december, a survey usa poll showed bonilla leading with 54% of the vote, he lost by that amount.  democrats thought they had a chance in ga-10, then were shutout.  then in the runoff, the heavily favored whitehead lost (narrowly) to broun.  with very low turnout special elections are basically a crapshoot.  that’s one of the reasons why republicans might have a chance here, and dems might have a chance in oh-10.

  3. No primary challenge, but I would be very, very surprised if we don’t see one. At the same time, I would give even odds she pulls out of the race before next year’s election. The danger, of course, is that by doing so she leaves us without a candidate early next summer.

    1. A Presidential race to a special election. The turnout models are competely skewered. I mean completely–there is very little to no correlation between a turnout model for a district in the middle of a Presidential race and a turnout model for a district in an off-year special election.

      Not only has VA-01 not been seriously challenged in the past, but the General Assembly elections taking place within the district right now are, for the large part, not being seriously challenged. It is a Republican district, and I would be very surprised if the eventual Democratic nominee matched Kaine and Webb’s performance.

    2. The nominee could easily use Mark Warner to help campaign and boost the voter turnout for a special election. 

Comments are closed.